Bill Bradway, 35-year banking industry veteran and founder of Bradway Research, is one of the key contributors to William Mills Agency’s seventh annual “Bankers as Buyers” report. Scott Mills, agency president and editor of the 2010 report, recently sat down with Bradway to expand on his predictions for 2010.
MILLS: You’ve spent three decades in the financial industry. How was the recent recession different from those in year past, in terms of their impact on the industry?
BRADWAY: The great recession of Dec. 2007–and still running, has had a much more severe impact on consumers than 1973–75, 1980–82, 1990–92 and 2001–02. While high unemployment marked some of the previous recessions, this time the accumulated consumer debt load by 2007 far exceeded the prior recessions and was exacerbated by very risky lending practices that assumed the good times would continue supporting home prices and income levels. Too many home mortgages were originated without any or enough homeowner equity and adjustable rate mortgages were poorly designed (e.g., pay option mortgages, teaser rates on 2/28 subprime mortgages). Finally, the evolving financial innovations that surrounded securitizations and complex derivative instruments turned into illiquid instruments of “financial destruction” (to borrow a phrase from Warren Buffet). The financial industry meltdown exposed how the inflated real estate asset bubble was really a house of cards.
MILLS: How will 2010 be different from the past two years?
BRADWAY: I expect 2010 will be marked by a slow, and sometimes choppy, recovery. By the end of 2010 the banking industry’s earnings should markedly higher vs. 2009; loan reserves and net charge offs will be shrinking; and resolving failed institutions benefits the industry. Some regional markets will bounce back and show encouraging signs of the economic recovery. Regions with strong high tech and health care industry segments are good candidates as job growth will be up. Community banks and credit unions which are in good shape in these markets stand to gain market share.
MILLS: What are some of the most important strategic banking initiatives that happened during the recession?
BRADWAY: The attention focused on the various elements of risk management has been intensified. A second broad initiative has addressed cost reduction, albeit in a variety of ways. The most successful cost reduction efforts have streamlined operations, improved business processes and reduced the “time” component. Ultimately, staff becomes more productive and customers receive better service and sometimes better pricing.
MILLS: You are predicting that there will be more bank closures in 2010 than there were in 2009. Why is that?
BRADWAY: Over 25% of banks lost money in 2009, which compares to less than 7% in 2006. I have forecast more FDIC failures in 2010 vs. 2009 as the FDIC has replenished its reserves with the three year advance on insurance premiums and has added more staff to handle resolutions. Fewer troubled big banks need resolution meaning 2010 failures will have an even higher concentration of small banks which will lead to a higher number of failures.
MILLS: What do you anticipate the “mission critical” areas of IT spending to be in 2010?
BRADWAY: “Mission critical” varies by institution in any given year. Overall, the state of an institution’s IT infrastructure and capacity to modify and/or integrate new application capabilities is one long term “mission critical” requirement that is sometimes overlooked or ignored. Another “mission critical” area is the ability to view business results and client relationships from a comprehensive customer-centric perspective. I believe a share of wallet philosophy will be the best long term strategy if it is well executed. Among the big banks, Wells Fargo (starting with the former Norwest) has done an admirable job over the past 18 years on both the consumer and corporate sides of their franchise. USAA is another institution that has excelled in serving consumers across their financial wallet. Some small institutions also get this strategy and have moved faster and more effectively than big institutions.
MILLS: In what areas should banks be focusing their IT spending in 2010 (vs. where they will be focusing their spending)?
BRADWAY: The answer to this question is related to “mission critical” requirements for each institution. A “follow the herd” mentality at an institution that has not addressed its “mission critical” requirements will most likely lead to disappointment. Every institution should have a clear focus on its “mission critical” IT requirements and that includes a top management and line of business executive buy in. Once that buy in is endorsed, the decisions on which IT investments “should” be addressed is much easier for an institution to make. In general, I believe all institutions should be making IT investments that improve its ability to operate around customers and their needs – which touches on products, distribution channels, and analytics to highlight three key areas.
MILLS: As an entrepreneur, how has the economy impacted your business and what measures have you taken to ensure success?
BRADWAY: To start with, I have a boutique expert business model. The market turmoil tightened budgets everywhere and sharpened the focus of both institutions and FinTech vendors. My focus on delivering very timely, insightful analysis on hot topics that do not have clear answers, such as which BankTech startups and innovative solutions have the potential for high impact has been well received. My ability to be nimble and strategic has allowed me to address customer needs on a timely basis. Finally, during the past three years, more customers have welcomed my “on demand, less is more, by-the-drink expertise.”
About Bill Bradway
Most recently, Bill Bradway was Group Vice President, Banking and Insurance at Financial Insights, an IDC Company from November 2002 to March 2006. which covered all corporate- and consumer-oriented financial products and their underlying technology solutions, specializing in core bank processing applications, multi-channel solutions, payments solutions, data warehouse and business intelligence solutions, and customer management solutions. Prior to Financial Insights, he was president and co-founder of Meridien Research before its merger with IDC in November 2002. Before co-founding Meridien Research in March 1997, he was a founding member of TowerGroup, which started in April 1993.
Prior to his career as a senior industry analyst covering financial institutions and their use of technology solutions, Bill Bradway was an executive vice president at Coast Federal Bank, a $12 billion consumer bank based in Los Angeles, California. He was responsible for a variety of banking businesses, including mortgage servicing, asset-based lending, insurance, as well as information technology, marketing, and in-house legal counsel. Other responsibilities during his 15 year career at Coast Federal included mergers & acquisitions, managing a region of 10 retail branches, strategic planning and asset-liability management, branch acquisition, and community reinvestment act compliance.
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